Sinwar’s exit changes the entire Gaza equation. America must now act boldly

Biden’s legacy may be defined by his administration’s next diplomatic steps

Yahya Sinwar, Hamas military commander and the architect of the worst atrocity conducted against Jews since the Holocaust, has been killed by Israel. Now there may – just may – be a path to peace ahead. But it will depend almost exclusively on the US’ diplomatic persuasion, and is by no means certain that a still-grieving Israel, demonstrably showing its military and intelligence strength across the Middle East, will be ready to call a halt. 
While Israel has every right to secure its borders, and bring to justice all those responsible for 7 October, there has been mounting pressure on the Jewish state from some of its closest political allies – particularly the Biden administration – to seek an end-game, particularly for Gaza. 
The two largest obstacles to any peace deal for Gaza have been the continued holding of Israeli hostages and the survival of Hamas’ military head and architect of the 7 October atrocities, Sinwar. His continued presence only a few hundred metres from Israel has been an affront to all Israelis, and his removal has been an absolute non-conditional goal of the Israeli government. Israel has spent the last twelve months eliminating Sinwar’s deputies and decimating Hamas’ command ability. The Hamas chief has survived until now only by surrounding himself with Israeli hostages and children deep underground. 
Sinwar’s elimination could be the first step towards cessation of hostilities. The pre-atrocity Hamas leadership has now been entirely destroyed. Critics of so-called “kill or capture” missions suggest that for every killed commander many more are ready to step up, but that has evidently not been the case in Gaza. Hamas operations have repeatedly suffered from disjointed and disrupted leadership as their commanders have been killed one by one. 
Now Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu will consider Israel’s next moves in Gaza. The US has a critical role to play in diplomatic efforts to achieve a meaningful lasting solution. President Biden has made it known that his one last hope for his remaining time in office is to try for peace in the Middle East. Until now, with Sinwar alive in Gaza, such an outcome has been impossible for Netanyahu to stomach. That all changes now. 
Hamas in Gaza is now likely to fall under the distant control of Qatar-based Hamas leader Khaled Meshal. The Biden administration needs to put its diplomatic clout to work, pressuring Doha to immediately freeze Meshal’s assets and then extradite him to the US or Israel. He must also be compelled – by deal if necessary – to surrender Hamas unconditionally to Israel. All remaining hostages must be released: an action which would have been impossible under Sinwar as he needed the hostages to have any chance of remaining alive. 
There is now a genuine prospect of an end to the war in Gaza, as the Israelis have largely completed their war aim of creating a large enough buffer zone inside Gaza around Israel’s borders to prevent an incursion similar to last October. There is no appetite or popular national support in Israel for a long-term occupation of Gaza, and even less military bandwidth to do so now that Israeli forces are hunting down Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, not to mention the possibility of escalation with Iran. 
Israel’s strategy for the last twelve months has finally yielded military success, and this success must now be capitalised upon. In this, the US is sorely needed. Biden’s legacy may be defined by his administration’s next diplomatic steps. 
Robert Clark is a Defence Fellow at the Yorktown Institute. Prior to this he served in the British Army